The leader of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said at a press conference about the threat of annexation from the Russian side and its readiness to defend the sovereignty «» the media report about the Belarusian power structures sweeps most associated with Moscow characters and the upcoming in Minsk measures for protecting the media space from Russian propaganda. Whether preparing a new big war in the post-Soviet space?
A. Lukashenko said about the threat of Belarus ‘ annexation by Russia/ photos president.gov.by
Belarusian newspaper Nasha Niva published with reference to its source in the entourage of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, information about a closed meeting of senior leaders to discuss measures against a possible intervention and even invasion by Russia. Decided to prepare the security forces and «follow more closely the information field».
«Had a great meeting with the President. [It was said] the end stand for independence. Everyone supported it,» — reports the words of the informant edition. Says Nasha Niva, a meeting was held the day before the «very hard» press conference Lukashenko, where he accused Moscow of planning the annexation of Belarus.
The head of Belarus said at a press conference for Russian media that Russia wants to incorporate the country into its composition. «I understand these hints: get oil, but let’s destroy the country and join Russia, — quotes its RBC — I always ask the question: things in the name of what are made? Have you thought about the consequences? How it will look in our and your country and the international community? By hook or by crook incorporate the country into the of another country.»
The head of Belarus is ready to defend independence before the end/ photo president.gov.by
Media in the former Soviet Union picked up this statement, especially because of the suspicion of the preparation including the use of force the invasion of Russia in Belarus has long history. For example, last summer during the exercise Zapad 2017 there is the incident with the «inconsistent with Minsk» the March of Russian divisions and trains with tanks to Belarus in quantity far beyond the limits stipulated for the exercise of digits. Then, after Lukashenka’s Statements about the inadmissibility of unilateral revision of the force of the exercise and the abrupt reaction of the Belarusian military, all blamed on «miscommunication in the headquarters» and has deployed troops ago. Anyway, the media in the last two years regularly, citing various sources claim that the Kremlin would like at least to change Lukashenko, who has long been not satisfied with Putin personally. At the same time, distinct ideas, «how to nominate» the Belarusian batko successor and bring him to power — no. In the conditions of a totalitarian regime to win from farther in the elections or to introduce him as «little green men» is not possible.
This weekend, after a loud statement of the Belarusian leader talk about the possible annexation of Belarus broke out with renewed vigor. Supposedly Putin needs a new foreign victory to sustain the Patriotic hysteria in the country, the opportunity to threaten Ukraine from the North and Lithuania to the South, close their tanks to Poland. And the chances of a small victorious war with Moscow in Belarus, more than NATO in the Baltic States or in Ukraine combat-ready. There are hopes that the dictator Lukashenko will not be able in that case to get support from US and EU, even to the extent he has received in his time in the Ukraine. Belarusian dad, as it is called, is subjected to constant criticism over political repression, media censorship and the Soviet methods of economic management.
Vladislav Inozemtsev
Russian politician, economist
Wanting to know if these unfounded assumptions, USA.one asked for commentary on political and economic expert Vladislav Inozemtsev, previously skeptical speaks about the possibility of a Russian invasion in Belarus. The latest developments in his view, disturbingly, it seems that the Belarusian map can be played not only in the foreign policy game, but in the new cycle of domestic policy. According to him the possibility to use Belarus ‘ accession or the establishment of a new single Union state, including the Belarusian regions to legitimize the upcoming presidential terms of Putin: «the Creation of a new state and getting Putin’s two consecutive mandates for the management, many in the Kremlin seem tempting. And it can be presented as a step towards actual restoration of the Soviet Union – the rise of political support is apparently even stronger than the result of the annexation of Crimea. Thus in Moscow consider that Belarus, unlike other neighbors of Russia, is quite underdeveloped awareness of their own national identity, statehood, Belarusians are not very politicized. Period of real freedom in her story was not even in the 90s. At the same time, many Belarusians live or work in Russia, many in Poland or the Baltic States. There is a wide forces, ready to defend the independence of the country».
Vladislav Inozemtsev also shared his impression of a meeting of Western experts with Lukashenko in late October: «he told me that the behavior and statements Lukashenko was some feigned determination, in his opinion, hid a sense of their own vulnerability. Without specifying what exactly was meant, he said that the President talked about his ability to do what he certainly will not do in any situation.»
Belarus is a large country in Eastern Europe with a population close to 10 million people, a developed industry and agriculture, is an important transport corridor between Russia and the European Union, the Baltic States and Ukraine. The destabilization of Belarus can lead to negative economic consequences for the region and especially for population with administrative economy, unable in that case to fight with Russian corruption. The power structure is completely loyal to the President. The armed forces is estimated at 60-70 thousand troops equipped with modern military equipment, comparable in quality to the Russian. The real clash can lead to great destruction and casualties, much larger than in Eastern Ukraine in 2014
