January 16, Vice-President Mike Pence said that «Islamic state» is «defeated». On the same day, the terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for the bombing in Syria, which killed Americans.
We tried to understand if the administration trump, speaking about the defeat of ISIS, or in a hurry to wishful thinking.
What authorities say
Donald Trump
The President of the United States
19 December 2018, the US President Donald trump made a historic statement:
«We defeated ISIS in Syria; it is the only reason we were there during the presidency of trump.»
His tweet was followed by a quick reaction of the media and political experts. They did the only logical conclusion: States withdraw its troops from Syria. A month later it was confirmed the second person in the country after the President.
Mike Pence
Vice-President of the United States
«Thanks to the leadership of our commander in chief and the courage and sacrifice of our armed forces, now we can definitely leave the struggle with LIH in Syria, coalition partners and return their troops home. The Caliphate collapsed, ISIL defeated,» —
said Vice-President Mike Pence at the conference, the U.S. state Department.
However, a few hours before the speech, Vice-President, a suicide bomber blew himself up in restaurant in the city of Manbij, where he attended the U.S. army. The explosion killed 20 people, including 4 soldiers of the US Navy. (About the victims-the Americans became known after the statement of Pence.) According to the information associated with LIH the Internet resource Amaq, the responsibility for the attack claimed by the «losers» of the «Islamic state».
Where was and is ISIS
Let’s start with the origins. LIH («Islamic state of Iraq» and in 2013 — «the Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant») was formed in 2006 with the participation of «al-Qaeda» behind the attacks of September 11, 2001. Fame, the organization received many years later, namely in 2014, when its members began full-scale offensive on the Northern and Western regions of Iraq and in Kurdistan (Syria). 29 Jun 2014 guide Igil announced the creation of a Caliphate (state) with its capital of al-Raqqah.
As reports the analytical Agency IHS, Markit, in January 2015 the Caliphate in Iraq and Syria, took about 35 thousand square miles (90650 sq km). It’s like the area of Maine. Terrorists have seized and controlled a major city such as Mosul. In total 10 million people were under the rule of ISIS. According to estimates analyst David Hartenstein Ross, then the terrorist organization could be about 100 thousand fighters.
The Caliphate has gained immense influence among extremists, so over time, other groups announced their commitment to the head of ISIS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The peak activity of the self-proclaimed state came in 2015, when leaders of the de facto erased the border between Iraq and Syria, issued their own currency, establish their own legislation and organized terrorist attacks around the world.
Argument
Today, it is undeniable that the self-proclaimed «Islamic state» suffered a devastating loss. As a result of operation held by the coalition headed by the USA, in October 2017 was released on the ISIS capital of ar-Raqqah, and in November — his last border town of Abu Kamal. After that, trump said that «the end of the Caliphate is at hand.»
According to the coalition for early 2018, ISIL has lost 98% of captured territory. Then Brett Mcgurk, special representative of the President on cooperation with other countries in the fight against LIH, said that the US and its allies have made «great progress», but the end is not yet. «We still have a long way», he warned a year ago.
And on 15 December 2018 — 4 days before trump statements about the victory over LIH — in an interview with CNBC Mcgurk noted that the United States will have to work hard to maintain their positions in Syria and Iraq.
«In the coming months we plan to win what used to be the physical space which is controlled by ISIL. said Mcgurk. But it’s not the end of the Igil».
After the decision of trump to withdraw troops defence Minister James Mattis and Mcgurk resigned.
The argument «against»
Tom Smith, a leading expert on international relations at the University of Portsmouth (UK), told USA.one, why he believes that ISIS is not defeated.
Dr. Tom Smith
a leading expert on international relations at the University of Portsmouth:
«ISIS remains the same, than pretty much always were, — brand open source that jihadists can use at their discretion. I think some time last embers of the group will tulevat in a limited geographical region in Syria and Iraq, creating local chaos. Further threat, however, will come from people who have fallen under the influence of the brand.
To win over the brand is difficult, it takes a lot of time. So, al-Qaida and its brand still exists. There is a risk that other conflicts formed another group of jihadists and attracted to its ranks many of those who share the ideas of ISIS».
Dr Smith — not the only expert who believes that statements about the victory over the Islamic state — are unfounded. Many political analysts believe that, despite the collapse of the Caliphate, the group will continue to exist — as the insurgency. In addition, there is reason to believe that the leader of ISIS al-Baghdadi is alive, though, and regularly reports about his death. According to various estimates, in Iraq and Syria are still tens of thousands of fighters.
In a report in September 2018, the Nonpartisan congressional research service, citing military data, the United States, said that ISIL may have «about 30 thousand valid and former members» in Syria and Iraq. The report notes that UN — similar data.
History has repeatedly proven that marginalized groups are being revived. So it was with LIH after the death of its leader Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in 2006. This will probably happen again when the region will be without a deterrent force, which was the US army.
