What will happen to Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops, discuss the negotiations in Doha and Moscow

A new round of talks between US representatives and the Taliban in Doha is scheduled for February 25. In the remaining before that date, announced its US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad will visit Belgium, Turkey, Germany and Pakistan for the coordination of positions.

Airmen and Soldiers prepare to load Apache Helicopters into a C-5 at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, on Feb. 7, 2019. @ResoluteSupport pic.twitter.com/TydNiwFu8n

— U. S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) February 11, 2019

Negotiations in the Qatari capital held behind closed doors, so their contents can only be judged of leaks and brief statements to the media. It is argued that here we discuss only the narrow questions of the organization of the withdrawal of us troops from Taliban-controlled territories in Afghanistan, in particular the cease-fire and exchange of prisoners. It is also reported that the United States has sought from the Taliban assurances not to allow its territory to troops of ISIS or any other terrorist organizations from Syria. Later there was information that we are talking about the Taliban-interference in the Affairs of Syria and the Gulf countries.

Nevertheless, the official authorities in Afghanistan, these talks are a cause of suspicion and irritation. President Ashraf Ghani insists that they walked with the participation of its representatives, or at least on the territory of his country. After the Taliban refused to communicate with the Americans in Kabul, Ghani has offered to hold talks controlled the city — Nangarhar. However, the Taliban do not recognize the Kabul government rejected this option. In the end, on 25 February, the parties will meet again in Doha.

Good meeting with President @AshrafGhani this afternoon in #Munich. We discussed next steps on consultative Loya Jirga and the urgent necessity of an intra-Afghan dialogue, as well as key regional developments. We are united in our pursuit of #peace. pic.twitter.com/MSHBKvnSzF

— U. S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad (@US4AfghanPeace) February 14, 2019

Khalilzad himself in an official statement, February 10, assured that all efforts are being made to sit at the same table all the parties, and that he intends to speak with partners during a trip to Europe and Pakistan. Meanwhile it became known that the Taliban establish another international contact, to bypass Kabul. As reported by Reuters, the crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in the coming days, may meet with representatives of the movement in Peshawar (Pakistan). Given the closeness of the Prince to Donald Trump, this meeting could become another important channel for discussing ways of resolving the situation in Afghanistan.

Missing all the talks of representatives Ghani became a reason for sharp criticism of trump on the part of those who believe that the United States betrayed allies. Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker stated Foreign Policy: «If we withdraw troops, we argue, within 18 months, you will see the Taliban across the country, they will return [me] control [over the lost territories]».

Soviet Army leaving Afganistan, October 15, 1989. pic.twitter.com/SMdDiIucpe

— John T. Biggs (@biggspirit) August 13, 2016

In the days when the 30th anniversary of the withdrawal from Afghanistan of Soviet troops, it is difficult not to recall how in the 1990s, after the Soviet division, the Taliban quickly seized control over the entire Afghanistan and a serious threat to the former Soviet republics in Central Asia and Russia. If in Doha, the Taliban now guarantee to representatives of the us non-interference «in the East», it is possible that they are planning to repeat the scenario of pressure on the North through the Panj? At the turn of 1999-2000 the threat of a massive invasion of the Mujahideen over the Panj in Tajikistan and then Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan became for the Russian General staff is a real headache. And us troops in Afghanistan in 2001, many perceived then as a chance for the former Soviet Union to a few decades of peace, without military threat from the South.

Perhaps such fears of renewed threats led to negotiations in Moscow, which, according to the BBC, began last week with the participation of former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai, some Afghan officials and also unnamed representatives of the Taliban. Organized by the Kremlin’s attempt to establish intra-Afghan dialogue aims to find common ground for the parties to guarantee peace in Afghanistan «without U.S. troops».

Moscow peace conference on #Afghanistan. Notice the missing namecard. Outrageous. pic.twitter.com/OxDwyhlI0O

— Christopher Kolenda (@Chris_Kolenda) February 10, 2019

What will happen to Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops, discuss the negotiations in Doha and MoscowGeneral Alexander Mikhailov believes necessary negotiations with the Taliban

Member of the Council on foreign and defense policy of the Russian Federation General Alexander Mikhailov, in 1990-e years — the closest aide Sergei Stepashin in FGC and the Russian Government who is familiar with the Afghan problem, — confirmed the USA.onethat in Moscow consider it necessary contacts with the Taliban, although no fear in the current climate, a real military threat on their part to Central Asia: «the Taliban understand that war is a necessary measure. By the way, it was necessary to seek the possibility of negotiations with them. It is difficult, but necessary. At stake — a human life…»

The question is not whether the return is now Russia in Afghanistan, Mikhailov answered in the negative: «Russia, after the last war, will find other ways…» first and foremost, this is a negotiation, the agenda of which, according to the General must be peaceful questions: «Afghanistan needs peace. Humanitarian projects. The establishment of an economy, industry, education and medicine. It will be difficult. But I have to work diplomacy. It is necessary to seek stabilization, reducing escalation».

Afghan Taliban to hold talks with US in Islamabad on Feb 18: . https://t.co/PMOiZMOtzv pic.twitter.com/OrfpRV3Lbt

— 92 News HD Plus (@92newschannel) February 14, 2019

A former intelligence official, now Minister of internal Affairs of Afghanistan Masood Andrabi supports the peace talks and the inter-Afghan dialogue, however, are careful in estimations of prospects. «The Taliban involved in the talks, mostly moderate, he said in an interview with the Intercept. The main problem will be the radical group of Taliban, who are in safe shelters in Pakistan».

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