April 17 at the World Affairs Council in San Francisco hosted a meeting about the actual return of Russia on the world arena. The main speaker, a former employee of the national intelligence and now Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University Angela Stent said he did not believe in the possibility of a new generation to pave way for serious changes in Russia.
According to her, the idea of a special civilizational uniqueness of the Russian people has its roots in the distant past, and was surprisingly popular in Russia today, as evidenced, first and foremost, a high level of support for the annexation of the Crimea. In addition, according to her, in Russia a whole generation that knows no other President, except President Vladimir Putin.
«Today’s Russian youth have not found the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they believe that the collapse occurred not because of internal economic reasons, but solely through the fault of the West. Even if these people do not support Putin personally, they still support the idea of a strong Russia. Alexei Navalny works very effectively, but still the number of his supporters is not as great in comparison to the total number of young people in the country», says Angela Stent.
However, the analyst believes that any successor to Putin will be much harder to establish relations with different groups of Russian oligarchs, many of whom are extremely dissatisfied with the contact under the sanctions.
Other conclusions of the expert at Georgetown University, in principle, coincide with the opinion of other American analysts. So, the main motivation of Putin Stent called the sense of humiliation and betrayal by the West and the desire to with Russia was considered – adding, however, that causes the particular actions of Moscow is much less global and more pragmatic.
«In its cyber-invasion in the United States and Europe, Putin wanted to discredit the Western system, including the electoral system. His resent how Western leaders criticize Russia, and he decided to prove that the Western system did not perfect Russian. For this purpose, confronts people of different views, using provocations, conflicts and contradictions that already existed in Western society,» she said.
Thus, regardless of the identity of the Russian leader, Angela Stent does not believe that the United States and Russia will ever be able to become full-fledged partners.
«Periods of cooperation in our history was rather short. This is the Second World war and the short period of time after September 11, 2001. The best we can hope for in relations with Moscow is cooperation in some areas and fair competition in others,» says Stent.
However, an analyst on Russia does not believe that the Kremlin is able to start a real nuclear war or even seriously put the world on the brink of such a war, as it was during the Cuban missile crisis. She also repeated the widespread thesis that Putin is not a strategist, but rather a tactician, able to exploit the opportunities. However, Angela Stent has recognized that in some regions of Russia is carrying out an effective policy.
«Russia is behaving in the middle East is entirely pragmatic: aggressive, but at the same time flexible. Putin manages to keep the same closeness with almost all the Sunni States, presenting himself thus in the role of referee, while the US always try to choose one or the other side,» she shared.
According to Angela Stent, that Russia today allows you to behave on the world stage so aggressively, partly to blame for the US government.
«We overestimated Russia’s desire to integrate into the Western system, underestimating the level of resentment that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the reforms of 90-ies has caused the population. The American intelligence services also overestimated the own ability,» she concluded.
