National oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) issued a forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. There is 35% probability that this season will exceed the norm by the number of storms and hurricanes. Although it is hoped about 40%, the indicators will remain average for the season. The chance that the number of storms will be less than the usual norm, is equal to 25%. Hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1, and promises to deliver Americans a lot of problems.
The names of expected tropical cyclones. Photo: NOAA
«Thanks to advances in modern computing technology in the past year, the ability of NOAA scientists to predict the path of cyclones and to warn Americans of impending danger, unprecedented,» said Wilbur Ross, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce.
In General, experts NOAA gives a 70% probability that the hurricane season in the Atlantic will bring US from 10 to 16 stormswhose wind speed will be 50-110 kmh. Of these, 5 to 9 tropical cyclones may develop into major hurricanes (wind speed 110-180 km / h). Accordingly, there is a possibility that 1 to 4 storms transformirovalsya in a particularly destructive hurricanes 3,4 or 5 categories. The speed of the wind in this cyclone starts from 180 km / h and above.
In many respects, the forecast is based on the behavior of El niño, the temperature variation of surface layer water in the Equatorial Pacific ocean. In conjunction with other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, scientists predict a fairly high storm activity.
In addition to the Atlantic forecast NOAA separately issued information on hurricanes for the Eastern and Central regions of the Pacific ocean. In the first case the number of expected storms varies from 14 to 20, of which 7-12 can develop into hurricanes. In the second, scientists predict 3 to 6 cyclones higher power.
Forecasting hurricanes is a complex process requiring high computational power and extensive training. However, US authorities claim the regular extension NOAA. Because of this, the forecast in 2018 will be different unique precision. This, in turn, will allow timely warn the population and prepare for the hurricane.
Hurricane season — 2017 has been the most active since 2015, when the United States was hurricane Katrina. Three consecutive hurricane reached category 4 risk.
