While the world is struggling with the coronavirus, the researchers warn of a potentially active hurricane season in the Atlantic ocean. Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1 and ends in late November.
Thursday, April 2, already the 37th consecutive year, Colorado state University (CSU) released its forecast for hurricane season — and the numbers look much higher than normal.
In particular, the team predicts 16 «named» tropical systems. According to forecasts, 8 of these systems reached hurricane status, with wind speeds over 74 miles per hour (usually about 6 per year). Four of those hurricanes could reach 3rd category and above. The forecast is also alarming due to the fact that with a probability of almost 70% of the possible strong storm, with wind speeds from 111 to 129 miles an hour will crash into the shore somewhere along the coast of the United States.
When this happens, several crises such as COVID-19 and hurricanes at the same time, climate scientists call this a multiplier of threats.
«We find ourselves in a very troubling situation, when all that we can hope for is to limit the damage, death and destruction,» said CBS News, Professor Michael Mann, Director of the Research center of Earth systems at the University of Pennsylvania.
To build a forecast for the hurricane season, CSU team examines several parameters associated with the previous hurricane seasons, including the temperature of the surface water in the Atlantic, the presence or absence of El niño in the tropical Pacific ocean and the phase of natural oscillations in the Atlantic basin.
While warmer water temps in the Gulf this time of year do not necessarily translate to a greater number of hurricanes, if a storm forms in Gulf and temps stay warm you can bet it will get a steroid boost of sorts from high-octane fuel. Gulf temps are 5F above norm with +8 in spots. pic.twitter.com/PEKbeHeA00
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) April 2, 2020
The most important factor that determines how active it may be hurricane season, the warm waters of the ocean. Currently, the sea surface temperatures above normal in most tropical and subtropical areas of the Atlantic, particularly the Gulf of Mexico.
Higher sea surface temperatures provide more energy to the developing storm system.
