As predicted by Old Farmer's Almanac this year, Americans will have the longest, coldest and coldest winter ever. Janice Stillman, editor of the 230-year almanac Winter 2021-2022, said Americans should prepare for “one of the longest, coldest winters we've ever seen.”
Although the accuracy of the almanac's forecasts is controversial, there are concerns that an icy combination of above average snowfall is expected in the United States this year, and temperatures will drop below average in the New England region, parts of the Appalachian region, Ohio and the northern part of the South. The almanac predicts colder and snowy winters in southern New Mexico as well. Most of the western drylands are facing an even greater drought, as predicted by the almanac. Moderate temperatures will be observed in parts of the United States, namely the Pacific coast and northern plains. The rest of the areas should prepare for the harsh winter conditions.
Old Farmer's Almanac provides long-term weather forecasts year after year. The publication also invites readers to find out the dates of the full moon, delicious recipes and helpful tips for self-help.
However, some weather experts are skeptical and distrustful of the almanac's forecasts. Old Farmer's Almanac began its existence in 1792, and a new version called Farmer's Almanac in 1818, long before satellite weather tracking systems appeared.
The secret formula for predicting weather was invented by Robert Thomas in 1792, notes about which are not disclosed to this day and are kept in a «locked black box» in the offices of the almanac.
«Over the years we have improved this formula with the help of the latest technologies and modern scientific calculations «, — mentioned on the official website of the almanac.
Besides secret formulas for predicting long-term weather forecasts, the almanac also uses solar sciences, climatology and meteorology. Even so, weather experts question the accuracy of these forecasts.
So in 2016 and 2017, meteorologist Ian Null decided to check the accuracy of the forecasts from Old Farmer's Almanac, setting estimates based on the result of comparing the almanac forecasts with actual weather conditions for each of the US regions.
In total, Null's rating system had three grades — good, bad and mixed. So, for example, if the almanac predicted a dry season in a certain region of the United States, but in fact, in fact, the amount of precipitation was below average, then Null assigned an accuracy rating of «good» to the forecast of the almanac for the proposed region. If the amount of precipitation was actually above average, then the forecast was rated “bad”. And if the selected region had average precipitation, then the forecast was assigned a «mixed» rating.
As a result, only 25% of the 57 considered regions were awarded & # 34; good & # 34; assessing the accuracy of precipitation forecasts for 2016-2017. If we evaluate the forecast of the temperature regime for 2016-2017, Null gave the almanac a «good» estimate of accuracy, with the result in less than 33% of the 52 regions examined.
And although the almanac claims to be 80% accurate in its forecast, many Forecast experts and modern meteorologists are calling into question the forecasts of a project as large and long-standing as Old Farmer's Almanac. We can only wait for the new winter season 2021-2022 and in fact make sure whether we can trust the forecasts of the almanac. Still, you should think about adding a couple of new warm clothes to your winter wardrobe.
