Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021

Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021

Political relations between the Russian Federation and the United States in the last 10 years have tended to slowly but inexorably build up contradictions. Outwardly, representatives of the governing apparatus of both countries preserve the semblance of mutual tolerance and respect, but in reality the political elites of both countries have opposite points of view on many issues.

At the same time, Moscow and Washington have a number of common themes affecting both the interests of the two states and the interests of the world community. These issues relate to arms control, the fight against international terrorism, information security.

Despite all the difficulties listed above, the economy remains one of the areas in which both countries rely on a purely pragmatic approach. Business representatives in both countries are interested in continuing and increasing mutually beneficial partnership. Even the unflagging anti-Russian sentiment in the ranks of the American economic elite and various restrictions do not diminish the progressive dynamics in trade and economic relations in certain areas. This is proved by a detailed analysis of foreign economic activity, which we will deal with in the following sections.

Analysis of economic relations — trade between the US and Russia

The global trends towards a drop in production and demand associated with the global pandemic inevitably affected the economic status of both countries. Trade volumes could not help but decline, but contrary to pessimistic forecasts, this decline did not reach a catastrophic scale. The spread of COVID-19 affected certain positions, but in some areas there was even an increase in comparison with previous years.

Let's go directly to the numbers. Analysis of trade turnover between the United States and the Russian Federation in 2019 amounted to $ 26.17 billion with a total cargo weight of 25.77 million tons. The minimum monthly indicator was traditionally in January, and the maximum — in March. In comparison with 2018, the volume increased by 4.9%.

The main goods that passed through the customs of both countries in the framework of official trade:

  • mineral fuels, oil and oil products, mineral waxes (the cost is about 26%, mass — 66%);
  • products of the military-industrial complex, natural gas and the aviation industry — goods from the SSSS «secret code» category related to the country's economic security (17% by value, 0.05% by mass);
  • nuclear reactors, boilers, equipment (8.25% — cost, 0.26% — weight).

Next in the list are ground vehicles, natural pearls, instruments and optical devices. The turnover is realized through three main regions — Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow region.

Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021

According to FCS statistics imports from the United States to Russia in value terms amounted to $ 13 billion. In the first place are goods from the category of the secret code, followed by nuclear boilers, equipment, ground transport.

Exports from Russia to the United States amounted to $ 13 billion — as you can see, the financial flows of imports and exports are equal. In the first place in terms of volume and cost — mineral fuel, oil and oil products, followed by natural or artificially grown pearls, precious metals, in third place — ferrous metals.

Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021 Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021

The USA is one of the ten leading exporters and importers in Russia and occupies 7th place in this list, behind China, Germany, Lithuania, Italy, Poland, Ukraine and ahead of Uzbekistan. The number of counterparties trading with America reaches 7,000 firms. At the same time, in 2019, the list of companies increased slightly — by 1.5% compared to 2018. There are more importers, but exporters — by 8% less. The total number of firms importing from the USA is 5751, and exporters — 1678.

Comparison of indicators for 2020 and 2019

Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021Russian-US relations — trade trends by 2021

In 2020, the trade turnover in January-September compared to the same period in 2019 for objective reasons decreased. A year ago, during this period, the volumes in monetary terms amounted to $ 19.38 billion, in 20 the indicators amounted to 17.58 billion. In July 2020, the export-import indicators were minimal — they amounted to $ 1.6 billion against 2.16 month of 2019. At the same time, the structure of foreign economic activity has hardly changed — with the exception of the movement of the category «Means of ground transport» to the 5th place (against the 4th position in 2019). In the regional structure of exports to the United States, the main exporters were and remain Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Sverdlovsk region.

As you can see, the political situation has almost no effect on the economic performance. The epidemiological situation has a more serious impact than politics. With the increasingly deteriorating foreign policy relations of both countries, trade is being conducted at almost the same pace (taking into account the impact of the pandemic). Investment cooperation is also developing. American investments are concentrated mainly in manufacturing, real estate, and wholesale. Regions with large reserves of minerals, as well as centers of the chemical and metallurgical industries, are of particular interest to the United States. Therefore, for the coming 2021, the prerequisites remain for maintaining impressive volumes of mutual trade.