The chamber of the United States (GAO) shared their insights, some of the most serious and long-term threats to fear the United States. Are China and Russia, artificial intelligence, and quantum information science, weapons of mass destruction and means of electronic warfare, new diseases and global warming.
The growing influence and power of China — a long-term threat to US security
In a report published on the website of the accounting chamber, highlighted the most serious long-term threats into four categories: political and military achievements of the opponents of the United States, their technological achievements, the development of weapons, as well as environmental and demographic risk. Only experts have identified 210 long-term threats, of which 26 are considered the most dangerous.
Political threats
In the first place in the political categories of risk experts put the growing influence of China: «China gathers its diplomatic, economic and military resources to contribute to its transformation into a regional and global power. It can let US access to air, space, cyberspace and sea lanes». By China’s use of cyber and advanced electronic warfare systems can affect the security of the United States, according to the study authors.
In second place in the list of threats includes Russia. «Russia is developing its capacity to challenge the United States in many areas, including trying to start the computer to attack the military assets of the United States. Russia also increased its military and political presence in key locations around the world.»
Still, experts recommend to pay attention to Iran, which «extends its influence, increasing the size and capabilities of its network of military, intelligence, and surrogate forces, at the same time increasing economic activity in various regions of the world. Iran is also likely to continue to develop its military capabilities, and in particular, to develop the technology needed to create Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and to improve its capabilities in cyberspace».
Finally, in fourth place is the threat from North Korea, which «develops capabilities to defeat North America and its allies with rockets of distant radius of action and can produce a significant number of Intercontinental ballistic missiles.»
This is followed by unpredictable threats. Thus, among long-term political threats called militant extremist organizations that are poorly controlled, unpredictable conflict, creating a humanitarian disaster, demanding from US extra and expensive intervention: «the countries of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean countries may experience instability due to conflicts that can lead to humanitarian catastrophes and the collapse of the government.» Such threats and related terrorism coming from different ideologies currents. Also, the United States could face challenges from potential opponents of new state and non-state adversaries (e.g., private corporations, receiving resources that can provide them with more influence than the state).
Information Security: Agencies Need to Improve Implementation of the Federal Approach to Securing Systems and Protecting against Intrusions https://t.co/kxKIu2Sgjp
U.S. GAO (@USGAO) December 18, 2018
Technology
Most of all, according to researchers, the United States should disturb artificial intelligence: «the Opponents can get access to advanced AI using the available designs used in the commercial industry, and can apply AI in areas such as weapons and military technologies».
It is also of concern quantum information: Quantum technology may allow cyber criminals to devise secure communications that the United States will not be able to intercept or decipher. Quantum computing could allow attackers to decrypt information that can allow them to affect military operations and staffing in the United States.
A special concern is the threat from the spreading technology of the Internet of things. «The United States may face difficulties in defending networks and data, the growth of IoT and traditional approaches to security (e.g., encryption) can no longer effectively protect information. Attackers can also disrupt infrastructure and devices that support the IoT».
The report also recommended to look at the threats to the wide spread of unmanned aircraft and other unmanned vehicles, bio-engineering, especially using the new knowledge of DNA and development of 3D printing.
Missile Defense: Air Force Report to Congress Included Information on the Capabilities, Operational Availability, and Funding Plan for Cobra Dane https://t.co/HqpihxIxPH
U.S. GAO (@USGAO) December 17, 2018
Weapons
Weapons of mass destruction will not go away and remains in the list of the most important threats, especially in connection with the increase in the number of States which possess such weapons and the risk of such weapons by terrorists and extremist forces.
In second place is specified threats connected with the development of electronic warfare. «Opponents are developing electronic weapons to attack the U.S. with sensitive electronic components such as military sensors, communications, navigation and information.» These tools can critically affect the US ability to gather information and plan their actions.
Also among the threatening directions of development of weapons is the attempts of Russia and China to move forward in creating hypersonic weapons, anti-satellite means, the technology, stealth, military robotics and cyber-weapons.
Military Personnel: DOD Needs to Improve Dental Clinic Staffing Models and Evaluate Recruitment and Retention Programs https://t.co/GNrY6fXsKB
U.S. GAO (@USGAO) December 13, 2018
Natural and demographic factors
First American analysts worry about the threat of emergence of new diseases and epidemics. «New and emerging diseases from the natural environment, which are aggravated by climate change, movement of people to cities, global trade and migration. Drug-resistant forms of diseases previously considered incurable, can become widespread».
Global warming has already led to an increase in extreme natural disasters, but the most dangerous things yet to come: «Climate change could worsen and affect food security, energy resources and health sector. The reduction of permafrost can extend the habitat of pathogenic microorganisms, causing disease. The loss of Arctic sea ice may open up previously closed Maritime routes, potentially increasing the access of Russia and China to new regions, and to challenge the freedom of navigation».
Finally, in the third place, the report’s authors put the risks of migration. Internal and international migration, the concentration of population in Metropolitan areas in Asia, Latin America and Africa due to weak technology development in these regions creates additional vulnerability. «The ability of these cities to provide adequate resources and infrastructure is in doubt, and may be vulnerable to natural or manmade disasters». And, of course, migration and political risks. «Mass movements threaten regional security, undermine the government,» the report said.
