Dead ends are often the norm in today's hyper-party America. Even when the same party controls both Congress and the White House, as the Democrats have done for the past two years, the need to secure a three-fifths majority in the Senate for most laws (with the exception of some budget bills) tends to lead to stagnation. And yet, in that sense, 2022 was not normal: the Biden administration managed to move the legislative process off the ground, with big consequences for the future.
He convened a bipartisan majority to pass the «Chip and Science Act» aimed at propping up the US $280 billion microchip industry thanks to growing wariness towards China. After unsuccessful attempts to bring about a massive economic reorganization of America, the administration eventually compromised enough to overcome the resistance of West Virginia's Joe Manchin, an often-floating Democrat in the 50-50 Senate, and pass the more modest, inappropriately titled " about reducing inflation", promising spending $369 billion over the decade.
His spending on climate change will be the most significant in American history (in a year when disasters from drought in the West to Hurricane Ian in the East and a nationwide winter storm at Christmas served as a reminder of climate dangers). Together with the infrastructure package passed in November 2021, the three bills would, by one count, result in almost $100 billion in annual industrial policy spending.
America may end up spending more as a percentage of GDP on industrial policy than unashamed proponents of the practice, such as France, Germany, and Japan. They and other allies are already starting to worry about the protectionism that Bidenomics might lead to.
Economic initiatives were not the only ones to overcome the impasse. For the first time in three decades, Congress has shown the will to enact (albeit modest) gun control measures following the horrific May 24 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that killed 21 people, including 19 children. At the end of the year, in an unsuccessful session of Congress, he secured federal protection for same-sex marriage, ensuring that same-sex unions are not subject to a Supreme Court ruling.
It is also important that America maintained a bipartisan consensus in response to the "invasion" Vladimir Putin to Ukraine. In the run-up to the NMD, the administration has made a bold and unusually public use of intelligence to frame Russia's agenda by pitting the truth against "Russian disinformation". Republicans quickly came to their senses about Russia, avoiding the "Putin fandom of the right". Despite some misgivings and ongoing warnings that there would be no “blank check” with a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, Congress has approved large sums—about $100 billion so far—in aid to Ukraine.
None of this means that guerrilla units have become less important. On the contrary, in some ways the country is increasingly like the divided states of America, where the states are fundamentally at odds on policy issues such as abortion, immigration, and environmental regulations. State by state, the gap between the red and blue blocs grew wider. In cultural matters, including the teaching of critical racial theory in schools, activists on both sides have succeeded in turning this into an abyss.
And then there is the Supreme Court. It faced a growing legitimacy crisis in 2022, with only 25% of Americans saying they trust the court in June, a record low. That same month, in its decision in Dobbs v. "Jackson Women's Health Organization" the court overturned the constitutional right to abortion, which had been established in 1973 in Roe v. Wade. For the first time in half a century, it no longer has a 5-4 split with a majority vote in the middle, but a 6-3 Conservative majority thanks to three judges appointed under the presidency of Donald Trump.
Over the past year, the consequences have been dramatic—and not just for abortion. In a radical sense, the court loosened gun control, undermined the separation of church and state, and limited the ability of the "Environmental Protection Agency" regulate emissions from power plants. The composition of the court changed in 2022, but not its conservative-liberal split. President Joe Biden successfully replaced one liberal justice with another after the resignation of Stephen Breuer and made history in the process. Ketanji Brown Jackson became the first black woman to serve on America's highest court.
America's divisions were on full display in the campaign for the most costly midterm elections ever. In the primaries, Donald Trump retained his grip on the Republican Party: many of the candidates the former president supported, including for vital Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Georgia, won.
In the run-up to the November 8 general election, Republicans had plenty to campaign for. Biden's approval ratings remained low. Voters were increasingly worried about the economy, especially resurgent inflation (Mr. Biden's over-stimulation was part of the problem, but so were the Fed's policy mistakes). Other major issues included immigration and related problems on America's southern frontier, rising crime.
For their part, Democrats were buoyed by concerns about women's right to abortion after the repeal of the "Roe" and for the very future of democracy, given the Republican Party’s endorsement of Mr. Trump’s “stolen election” lies in 2020. They also turned against their own progressive wing, whose excesses sparked successful recall campaigns in San Francisco.
Republicans were widely expected to comfortably regain control of the House of Representatives (where the typical loss of a presidential party in a midterm election in the modern era is about 30 seats) and possibly also the evenly divided Senate. However, in this case, the Republicans just won the House of Representatives, and the Democrats even won a seat in the Senate thanks to victories over the Trumpist candidates. Despite all the preliminary fears, American democracy looked stronger. Voters rejected a number of prominent Trump supporters who denied running in the election. And for once, opinion polls, after embarrassing blunders in previous election cycles, have been remarkably accurate.
Perhaps the biggest loser was Trump. His name was not on the ballot, but many of the well-known candidates he supported lost their races. Mr. Trump has had a terrible year, and not just in terms of election results. A televised congressional hearing on the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots aimed to place the blame entirely on him — with Liz Cheney, a former senior Republican in the House of Representatives, as his lead accuser. In August, the FBI ransacked his home in Mar-a-Lago, where agents found boxes of classified documents that the former president was unable to return. In December, two companies "Trump Organization" were found guilty of tax fraud and other legal problems arose.
Perhaps Trump's biggest problem was the emergence of a serious Republican contender in Ron DeSantis, whose own comfortable re-election as governor of Florida contrasted sharply with what Mr. Trump (in the eyes of many Republicans, though not many of his hardened fans) was losers. Toward the end of the year, polls showed Republican primary voters favoring Mr. DeSantis over Mr. Trump.
And yet, these issues did not stop Mr. Trump from running for president in 2024, having done so at an early stage in an attempt to make himself appear inevitable (and make the legal attacks on him look like a political witch hunt). He remains a force to be reckoned with as America enters what is usually a year of «invisible» primaries before the actual voting begins in 2024. Mr Trump will not be invisible. And with the division of Congress (and new leadership) the stalemate will surely return.
