As this year's Old Farmer's Almanac predicts, Americans are facing their longest, harshest, coldest winter yet. Janice Steelman, editor of the 230-year-old almanac Winter 2021-2022, said Americans should prepare for «one of the longest, coldest winters we've ever seen.»
While the accuracy of the almanac's forecasts is debatable, there are concerns that the U.S. will see an icy combination of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures this year in the New England region, parts of the Appalachian region, Ohio and the upper South. The almanac also predicts a colder and snowier winter for southern New Mexico. Most of the western drylands are facing even greater drought, according to the almanac's forecasts. Moderate temperatures will be observed in some areas of the United States, namely the Pacific coast and the northern plains. Other areas should prepare for harsh winter conditions.
photo: almanac.com
The Old Farmer's Almanac provides long-range weather forecasts year after year. The publication also invites readers to find out the dates of the full moon, delicious recipes and useful self-help tips.
However, some weather experts are skeptical and distrustful of the almanac's forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanac dates back to 1792, and the new version, Farmer's Almanac, dates back to 1818, long before the advent of satellite weather tracking systems.
photo: almanac.com
The secret formula for predicting weather was invented by Robert Thomas in 1792, the notes of which are kept secret to this day in a “locked black box” in the almanac offices.
“Over the years we have perfected this formula using the latest technologies and modern scientific calculations,” is mentioned on the official website of the almanac.
Also, in addition to secret formulas for predicting long-term weather forecasts, the almanac uses solar science, climatology and meteorology. Even so, weather experts question the accuracy of these forecasts.
So, in 2016 and 2017, meteorologist Ian Null decided to test the accuracy of forecasts from the Old Farmer's Almanac, giving estimates by comparing the almanac's forecasts with actual weather conditions for each region of the United States.
There were three ratings in Null's rating system — good, bad and mixed. So, for example, if an almanac predicted a dry season for a certain region of the United States, but in fact the precipitation was below average, then Null assigned the almanac's forecast for the proposed region an accuracy rating of «good.» If the amount of precipitation was actually above average, then the forecast was rated “poor.” And if the selected region experienced average precipitation, then the forecast was assigned a “mixed” rating.
As a result, only 25% of the 57 regions considered were awarded "good" assessing the accuracy of precipitation forecasts for 2016-2017. When evaluating the temperature forecast for 2016-2017, Null gave the almanac a «good» accuracy rating, with less than 33% of the 52 regions reviewed.
And although the almanac claims 80% accuracy in its forecast, many Forecast experts and modern meteorologists are questioning the forecasts of a project as large and long-standing as the Old Farmer's Almanac. All we have to do is wait for the new winter season 2021-2022 and see after the fact whether we can trust the almanac’s forecasts. But it’s still worth thinking about adding a couple of new warm clothes to your winter wardrobe.
